[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices rebounded on July 2, with the meeting emphasizing the need to regulate enterprises' low-price and disorderly competition in accordance with laws and regulations

SMM Nickel News on July 2:

Macro News:

(1) President Xi Jinping presided over the sixth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, which discussed issues such as advancing the construction of a unified national market and the high-quality development of the marine economy. The meeting emphasized the need to regulate enterprises' low-price and disorderly competition in accordance with laws and regulations, guide enterprises to improve product quality, and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity.

(2) Trump: No consideration of extending the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline; doubts whether an agreement can be reached with Japan, which may face tariffs of 30% or 35%.

Spot Market:

Today, the SMM 1# refined nickel price is 120,600-123,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 122,050 yuan/mt, up 600 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is 2,400-2,600 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,500 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts quotation range for electrodeposited nickel from mainstream domestic brands is -100-300 yuan/mt, with a decrease in the high end.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2508) showed a fluctuating trend during the night session, rallied after the morning opening, and continued to rise during the session. As of the midday close, SHFE nickel was quoted at 121,060 yuan/mt, up 670 yuan/mt, or 0.56%.

Macro sentiment has improved marginally, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate mainly around the 120,000 yuan/mt level in the short term. However, with downstream demand currently in the off-season, the long-term surplus pattern of nickel is difficult to reverse, and the price center may gradually move lower.